Bitcoin Metric That Marked Every Cycle Bottom Since 2016 Just Flashed Again, Analyst Says
Key Takeaways
- Cryptoquant data shows bitcoin investors are realizing losses at a pace not seen earlier in the current correction, with a key on-chain signal flashing again.
- The latest reading points to a rise in loss-driven transactions, a pattern seen during periods of heavy selling pressure.
- More bitcoin is now moving below cost basis, a condition linked to volatile phases in past market cycles.
Bitcoin Metric Drops to Levels Last Seen Near Market Bottoms
Market data shows bitcoin investors are increasingly realizing losses, with a key on-chain indicator flashing a capitulation signal for the first time during the current correction. On June 29, Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost shared analysis on X that the UTXO Block Profit/Loss Count Ratio has fallen into a range historically associated with bear-market conditions.
The model measures the balance between bitcoin transactions completed in profit and those completed at a loss by analyzing UTXOs, the transaction outputs that record coin ownership and cost basis on the Bitcoin blockchain. The analysis states that “ UTXO analysis indicates that investor capitulation is underway,” adding:
“This is the first time this signal has triggered since the start of the correction.”
The declining ratio shows that more spent UTXOs are being realized at a loss than during earlier stages of the correction. Historically, the indicator has climbed during periods dominated by profit-taking and fallen sharply as realized losses become more widespread across the network.
Historical Chart Shows Similar Signals During Earlier Bitcoin Bear Markets
Historical data displayed in the Cryptoquant chart included with the analysis places previous signals around major bitcoin drawdowns in 2016, late 2018, 2020, and 2022. Each blue marker appeared after the ratio had fallen to depressed levels, indicating that realized losses had become increasingly common before subsequent market recoveries.
The analysis describes the latest reading as the beginning of a broader capitulation process rather than a single market event. It adds that these periods unfold over extended timeframes as more investors exit positions and interest in the market fades.
Commenting on the analysis, Quinten François, a crypto analyst and co-founder of WeRate, which has rebranded to Lokal, wrote on X on June 29:
“This metric flashed at every bitcoin cycle bottom since 2016. And it just flashed again.”
The indicator is derived entirely from completed on-chain transactions rather than price action or derivatives positioning. It tracks realized investor behavior recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain, providing a historical measure of when loss realization has reached levels that previously aligned with several major bitcoin cycle lows.