Bitcoin Flashes Bullish Signal That Could Push It to Next Big Target: Analyst
The last three weekly MACD crossovers on bitcoin’s chart produced gains of 147%, 75%, and 35%, respectively.
On Monday, for the first time since January, bitcoin crossed back above $80,000, and a closely watched technical indicator is now pointing to potentially much bigger gains ahead.
According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, a bullish MACD crossover confirmed on BTC’s weekly chart on April 13 has already produced a 15% price increase, and history suggests this type of signal tends to run a lot further.
What the MACD Signal Means
MACD tracks momentum by comparing two exponential moving averages, with traders reading a faster line crossing above the slower one as a sign that bearish pressure has faded and upward momentum is building.
On bitcoin’s weekly chart, that crossover is often given more significance by traders than similar signals on shorter timeframes, as weekly charts filter out short-term noise and reflect price action and sentiment that has developed over a longer period.
Martinez, posting on X on Tuesday, laid out the historical track record of this exact weekly setup. According to him, a crossover in October 2023 triggered a 147% rally, while another in October 2024 led to a 75% gain. There was also another crossover in May 2025, which produced a 35% move.
The analyst is now eyeing BTC’s 200-day SMA, which is sitting near $83,000. He says this is the most telling structural barrier on the daily chart, with a clean close above that level opening the door to $89,000, and then $94,000. $100,000 isn’t guaranteed, but the suggestion is that if this crossover behaves like past ones, we could get there.
Looking at the market, at the time of writing, bitcoin was trading around $81,000. It’s up roughly 1.4% over the last 24 hours and 21% over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko data, with trading volume also jumping 43% day-over-day to nearly $49 billion, suggesting this is not a low-participation move on the trading side.
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For some other market watchers, the path upward is not so clear-cut. One of them, trader Doctor Profit, has said that bitcoin’s current region is the final stage of a bull trap before another leg lower.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics platform Santiment posted a chart showing that bitcoin’s on-chain network activity has fallen to two-year lows, even as the price crossed back above $80,000. Only around 531,000 wallets are making transfers daily, and new wallet creation sits at about 203,000 per day, both near the bottom of the range seen over the past two years.
That is a real disconnect, with the price climbing but the network not getting busier. Santiment’s read is that a smaller group of players, likely larger holders and institutions, is responsible for most of this move, rather than a wave of retail participants flooding back in.
Historically, price gains on thin participation tend to be more fragile, simply because there are fewer buyers available to absorb any selling if conditions shift.