Pakistan uncovers israeli plot against iranian officials, impacting ceasefire odds

Pakistan reportedly discovered an Israeli plan to assassinate two Iranian officials involved in U.S. talks. Following this, Israel launched strikes in Iran. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

The revelation has affected related markets. Odds for US troops entering Iran have increased, suggesting a higher chance of military conflict. The Iranian regime fall market also rose. Ceasefire odds fell across the board, with April 7 at 8% and April 15 at 18.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday. Short-term markets show the most pessimism about diplomatic progress.

USDC trading volume remains high, with $205,330 on April 7 and $594,502 on April 15. The order book depth is strong, requiring $15,138 and $43,954 to move the price 5 points. However, large orders can still shift odds, as shown by a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM. Traders react to headlines, but the depth indicates institutional interest.

This escalation highlights the fragile ceasefire prospects. The source is tier-3, mainly social media, which limits its impact. However, the alignment with military actions adds weight. A YES share at 8¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs by April 7 — a 12.5x return. Betting on a quick resolution is risky without new diplomatic efforts.

Watch for changes in regional diplomacy, especially from Oman or Qatar. Statements from Secretary of State Rubio or a CENTCOM briefing could clarify U.S. intentions. Until then, expect volatile markets driven by military developments.

Markets Impacted

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