Bitcoin Remains Stable as Spot Market Leads Derivatives in Inflows

The recent bitcoin (BTC) rally has been characterised by a series of impulsive moves and well-defined consolidation phases. However, one thing that stood out during the surge was the active participation of spot traders.

According to the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report, BTC has been through a period of aggressive buying in the spot market. In contrast, traders in the derivatives market were caught relatively offside.

Spot Market Leads Derivatives

Since mid-April, the market has witnessed significant net spot buying across most trading platforms. This is evident in the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which measures the net difference between aggressive buys and sells.

Bitfinex analysts said CVD across major centralized exchanges peaked at more than $45 million per day. The surge aligned with bitcoin’s rally from $75,000 to above $104,000, with buying pressure building gradually before each breakout. This has reflected genuine demand rather than speculative derivatives activity, indicating that the rally is “built on solid ground” and supported by real capital flows.

Although BTC is consolidating now, analysts insist the asset needs this pattern of spot buyer dominance to navigate key resistance levels near its all-time high.

The Middle of a Mature Bull Market

On the other hand, the derivatives market has been cautious and reactive, as seen in the Spot Premium. This metric shows the difference between the Bitcoin spot price and the average of seven perpetuals and futures market prices. The Spot Premium has been positive since BTC crossed $80,000 in this rally.

Moreover, open interest in perpetual futures contracts has been contracting, reflecting a short squeeze as traders are compelled to unwind their bearish positions. While the market transitions from bearish to bullish, traders betting against bitcoin’s price surge have been caught off guard and liquidated with excess leverage flushed out of the system.

“The presence of back-to-back squeezes, on both sides of the trade, underscores a critical point: the rally appears to be maturing in a constructive fashion. The clearing out of over-leveraged participants has reset market positioning and created a healthier foundation for continuation,” analysts said.

These market dynamics are often seen during the early stages of a sustained bullish move. Analysts tagged it as the alignment of spot accumulation and derivatives market clean-up. With bitcoin’s surge now standing on firmer footing, the market is moving from speculative leverage towards structural buying, as is expected in the middle of a mature bull market.