AAVE price targets a 45% surge as exchange reserves hit a 4-year low
AAVE continues its strong rally, reaching its highest level since Feb. 2 as both fundamentals and technicals align.
AAVE (AAVE) surged to $281 on Tuesday, extending a rally that began on April 7 when the token bottomed at $114.15.
The uptrend has been supported by rising investor demand, reflected in a sharp drop in exchange balances. According to Santiment, the number of AAVE tokens held on centralized exchanges has declined to 3.17 million, down from 4.53 million in Nov. 2023. This is the lowest exchange balance since Feb. 2021.
Falling supply on exchanges is typically interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating that investors are opting to hold rather than sell. In contrast, increasing exchange supply often suggests rising sell pressure.
A closer look at AAVE’s fundamentals helps explain the bullish momentum. The total value locked in the protocol has reached a record $26.42 billion—up more than 30% over the past 30 days, signaling a sharp increase in network activity.
Protocol revenues have also stabilized. AAVE generated $33.8 million in fees this month, slightly higher than last month’s $33.3 million. This consistent revenue stream positions AAVE among the most profitable platforms in decentralized finance.
AAVE has also seen higher staking inflows, with the staking market cap hitting $800 million, from $454 million last month. In ETH terms, the staking volume has risen from last year’s low of 84k to 300k today.
GHO, AAVE’s native stablecoin, has also experienced surging demand, with its market cap hitting an all-time high of $265 million.
AAVE price technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the AAVE token price has been in a strong bull run in the past two months. It has even formed a golden cross pattern as the 50-day exponential moving average has moved above the 200 MA.
The Average Directional Index has surged to 42, a sign that the uptrend is gaining momentum. ADX is one of the most popular indicators for measuring the strength of a trend.
AAVE has also broken above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous cycle. This breakout increases the likelihood of a continuation higher, with the next key target at $400, representing a 45% gain from current levels.