$4,300 Breakout or $1,400 Breakdown?

Ethereum holds above key support near $2,940. Analysts say a breakout could lead to $4,300 if ETH stays above $2,630. But, there’s the downside play as well.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,900 after falling over 12% in the past week. Despite the pullback, the asset is holding above a key technical level. Traders are now watching to see if it can bounce from here and make a move toward $4,300.

ETH Holds Above Key Fibonacci Support

Crypto analyst StockTrader_Max shared that ETH is holding above its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $2,940.

$ETH is holding above its 0.618 FIB well..

A bounce here is expected with the next destination being $4,300 🎯 pic.twitter.com/MNLyWcq6PS

— StockTrader_Max (@StockTrader_Max) December 16, 2025

Notably, the price area is seen as a potential turning point after a completed corrective move. The structure appears to follow a wave pattern where a corrective phase may have ended, and a new upward move could be forming.

Based on the 1.618 extension, a target near $4,300 is possible. This setup remains valid while ETH stays above $2,630. If it breaks that level, the outlook weakens. Below $1,390, the structure would be considered invalid.

Additionally, Don posted a chart showing ETH breaking out from a falling wedge on the 5-day chart. The pattern is known to show up before upward moves. While ETH lost some support on shorter timeframes like the daily and 3-day, longer timeframes are still holding up.

The 5-day and weekly moving averages are acting as a support base around $2,720. The target from this wedge pattern is around $4,400. Price action has slowed, but the setup has not broken down. “It’s just slow cooking for $ETH,” Don said, suggesting the move may take time to develop.

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On the weekly chart, Man Of Bitcoin shared that the RSI has broken above a downward trendline. He explained that this type of break has, in past cycles, appeared before upward trends. ETH is now trading above some key support zones after a completed correction wave.

Mixed Signals as Large Buyers Accumulate

While some charts point to recovery, not all outlooks agree. Ali Martinez said,

“Closing December below $2,930 could send Ethereum to $2,000, or even $1,100.”

Max Crypto also noted that ETH’s December return is now negative. If the month closes red, it would be the ninth red month this year — a pattern seen only once before, in 2018.

Still, large holders appear to be buying. BitMine Immersion Technologies added over 100,000 ETH, worth more than $300 million, in just one week. While small traders may be selling, larger buyers seem to be stepping in.